Further portability hacking in pg_upgrade's test script.

I blew the dust off a Bourne shell (file date 1996, yea verily) and
tried to run test.sh with it.  It mostly worked, but I found that the
temp-directory creation code introduced by commit be76a6d3 was not
compatible, for a couple of reasons: this shell thinks "set -e" should
force an exit if a command within backticks fails, and it also thinks code
within braces should be executed by a sub-shell, meaning that variable
settings don't propagate back up to the parent shell.  In view of Victor
Wagner's report that Solaris is still using pre-POSIX shells, seems like
we oughta make this case work.  It's not like the code is any less
idiomatic this way; the prior coding technique appeared nowhere else.

(There is a remaining bash-ism here, which is that $RANDOM doesn't do
what the code hopes in non-bash shells.  But the use of $$ elsewhere in
that path should be enough to ensure uniqueness and some amount of
randomness, so I think it's okay as-is.)

Back-patch to all supported branches, as the previous commit was.

Discussion: https://postgr.es/m/20180720153820.69e9ae6c@fafnir.local.vm